Whawha 0–0 Triangle United: Result & Stats

Whawha

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Triangle United

8/27/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 25Ascot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Whawha42%

×Draw28%

Triangle United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WhawhaExpected goals in this matchTriangle United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.03

Whawha

1.29

Triangle United

1.03

Whawha creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

1.29

creates per match

0.66

1.41

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Whawha

1.29

Triangle United

0.66

allows per match

Whawha

1.41

Triangle United

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Whawha+0.00on par

Triangle United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Whawha ↓

Triangle United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Whawha or draw

70%

Whawha or Triangle United

72%

Draw or Triangle United

58%

Winning margin

Whawha wins by 2+

19%

Triangle United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Whawha 1+ goals

72%

Whawha 2+ goals

37%

Whawha 3+ goals

14%

Triangle United 1+ goals

64%

Triangle United 2+ goals

28%

Triangle United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Whawha (draw refunded)

59%

Triangle United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Whawha at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Triangle United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.30 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Whawha attack 1.29 + Triangle United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Triangle United attack 0.66 + Whawha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Whawha scores more

42%

level

28%

Triangle United scores more

30%

Whawha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Whawha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff