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Whawha vs Kariba — Premier Soccer League 2026

Whawha
Whawha
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kariba
Kariba
10/22/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 31Ascot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Whawha42%
×Draw28%
Kariba30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Whawha
1.25
Kariba
1.01

Whawha creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Whawha
1.29
Kariba
0.61

allows per match

Whawha
1.41
Kariba
1.20

finishing

Whawha+0.00on par
Kariba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Whawha ↓

Kariba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Whawha or draw
70%
Whawha or Kariba
72%
Draw or Kariba
58%

Winning margin

Whawha wins by 2+
19%
Kariba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Whawha 1+ goals
71%
Whawha 2+ goals
36%
Whawha 3+ goals
13%
Kariba 1+ goals
64%
Kariba 2+ goals
27%
Kariba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Whawha (draw refunded)
58%
Kariba (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Whawha at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Kariba away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.20 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Whawha attack 1.29 + Kariba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kariba attack 0.61 + Whawha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Whawha scores more
42%
level
28%
Kariba scores more
30%

Whawha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Whawha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Whawha 1 – 2 Kariba

Kariba beat Whawha 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Ascot Stadium in Gweru.