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Whawha vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Whawha
Whawha
FT
1 – 1
Harare City
Harare City
5/14/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 15Ascot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Whawha39%
×Draw28%
Harare City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Whawha
1.23
Harare City
1.10

Whawha creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Whawha
1.29
Harare City
0.79

allows per match

Whawha
1.41
Harare City
1.18

finishing

Whawha+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Whawha ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Whawha or draw
67%
Whawha or Harare City
72%
Draw or Harare City
61%

Winning margin

Whawha wins by 2+
17%
Harare City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Whawha 1+ goals
71%
Whawha 2+ goals
35%
Whawha 3+ goals
13%
Harare City 1+ goals
67%
Harare City 2+ goals
30%
Harare City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Whawha (draw refunded)
54%
Harare City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Whawha at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Whawha attack 1.29 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Harare City attack 0.79 + Whawha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Whawha scores more
39%
level
28%
Harare City scores more
33%

Whawha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Whawha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Whawha vs Harare City

Whawha and Harare City drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Ascot Stadium in Gweru.