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Weymouth Wales vs St. Andrew Lions — Premier League 2026

Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
4/13/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Weymouth Wales85%
×Draw10%
St. Andrew Lions5%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weymouth Wales
3.40
St. Andrew Lions
0.77

Weymouth Wales creates 342% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Weymouth Wales
2.95
St. Andrew Lions
0.85

allows per match

Weymouth Wales
0.68
St. Andrew Lions
3.85

finishing

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par
St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weymouth Wales ↓

St. Andrew Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Weymouth Wales or draw
95%
Weymouth Wales or St. Andrew Lions
90%
Draw or St. Andrew Lions
15%

Winning margin

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
68%
St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
96%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
84%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
64%
St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
54%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
18%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
94%
St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weymouth Wales at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

St. Andrew Lions away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weymouth Wales attack 2.95 + St. Andrew Lions defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 3.40

St. Andrew Lions attack 0.85 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Weymouth Wales scores more
85%
level
10%
St. Andrew Lions scores more
5%

Weymouth Wales at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Weymouth Wales 2–1 St. Andrew Lions

Weymouth Wales beat St. Andrew Lions 2-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2026.