Weymouth Wales vs Silver Sands

Weymouth Wales

CANC

20:00

Silver Sands

5/10/2020

Premier League · Round 9Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Weymouth Wales82%

×Draw11%

Silver Sands7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weymouth WalesExpected goals in this matchSilver Sands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

0.83

Weymouth Wales

3.17

Silver Sands

0.83

Weymouth Wales creates 282% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 23 away

2.87

creates per match

0.83

allows per match

3.48

creates per match

Weymouth Wales

2.87

Silver Sands

0.83

allows per match

Weymouth Wales

0.83

Silver Sands

3.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Silver Sands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weymouth Wales ↓

Silver Sands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Weymouth Wales or draw

93%

Weymouth Wales or Silver Sands

89%

Draw or Silver Sands

18%

Winning margin

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+

63%

Silver Sands wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals

96%

Weymouth Wales 2+ goals

82%

Weymouth Wales 3+ goals

60%

Silver Sands 1+ goals

56%

Silver Sands 2+ goals

20%

Silver Sands 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)

92%

Silver Sands (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weymouth Wales at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Silver Sands away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weymouth Wales attack 2.87 + Silver Sands defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 3.17

Silver Sands attack 0.83 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Weymouth Wales scores more

82%

level

11%

Silver Sands scores more

7%

Weymouth Wales at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff