Weymouth Wales 4–2 Notre Dame: Result & Stats

Weymouth Wales

FT

4 – 2

Notre Dame

8/16/2023

Premier League · Round 14Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Weymouth Wales59%

×Draw19%

Notre Dame23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weymouth WalesExpected goals in this matchNotre Dame

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.53

Weymouth Wales

2.52

Notre Dame

1.53

Weymouth Wales creates 65% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 18 away

2.87

creates per match

2.22

0.83

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Weymouth Wales

2.87

Notre Dame

2.22

allows per match

Weymouth Wales

0.83

Notre Dame

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Notre Dame+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weymouth Wales ↓

Notre Dame →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Weymouth Wales or draw

77%

Weymouth Wales or Notre Dame

81%

Draw or Notre Dame

41%

Winning margin

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+

38%

Notre Dame wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals

92%

Weymouth Wales 2+ goals

71%

Weymouth Wales 3+ goals

45%

Notre Dame 1+ goals

78%

Notre Dame 2+ goals

45%

Notre Dame 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)

72%

Notre Dame (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weymouth Wales at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Notre Dame away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weymouth Wales attack 2.87 + Notre Dame defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.52

Notre Dame attack 2.22 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Weymouth Wales scores more

59%

level

19%

Notre Dame scores more

23%

Weymouth Wales at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff