Weymouth Wales 3–1 Empire Club: Result & Stats

Weymouth Wales

FT

3 – 1

Empire Club

4/3/2023

Premier League · Round 5Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Weymouth Wales62%

×Draw19%

Empire Club19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weymouth WalesExpected goals in this matchEmpire Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.19

Weymouth Wales

2.32

Empire Club

1.19

Weymouth Wales creates 95% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 26 away

2.87

creates per match

1.54

0.83

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Weymouth Wales

2.87

Empire Club

1.54

allows per match

Weymouth Wales

0.83

Empire Club

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Empire Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weymouth Wales ↓

Empire Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Weymouth Wales or draw

81%

Weymouth Wales or Empire Club

81%

Draw or Empire Club

38%

Winning margin

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+

40%

Empire Club wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals

90%

Weymouth Wales 2+ goals

67%

Weymouth Wales 3+ goals

40%

Empire Club 1+ goals

70%

Empire Club 2+ goals

33%

Empire Club 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)

77%

Empire Club (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weymouth Wales at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Empire Club away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weymouth Wales attack 2.87 + Empire Club defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.32

Empire Club attack 1.54 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Weymouth Wales scores more

62%

level

19%

Empire Club scores more

19%

Weymouth Wales at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff