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Weymouth Wales vs Ellerton — Premier League 2019

Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
FT
0 – 3
Ellerton
Ellerton
7/17/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Weymouth Wales52%
×Draw21%
Ellerton27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weymouth Wales
2.12
Ellerton
1.50

Weymouth Wales creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 41 away

creates per match

Weymouth Wales
2.87
Ellerton
2.17

allows per match

Weymouth Wales
0.83
Ellerton
1.37

finishing

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par
Ellerton+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weymouth Wales ↓

Ellerton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Weymouth Wales or draw
73%
Weymouth Wales or Ellerton
79%
Draw or Ellerton
48%

Winning margin

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
31%
Ellerton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
88%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
62%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
35%
Ellerton 1+ goals
78%
Ellerton 2+ goals
44%
Ellerton 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
65%
Ellerton (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weymouth Wales at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Ellerton away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weymouth Wales attack 2.87 + Ellerton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.12

Ellerton attack 2.17 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Weymouth Wales scores more
52%
level
21%
Ellerton scores more
27%

Weymouth Wales at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weymouth Wales vs Ellerton

Ellerton beat Weymouth Wales 3-0 in Premier League on July 17, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.