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Ellerton vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2026

Ellerton
Ellerton
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
5/4/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ellerton28%
×Draw23%
Weymouth Wales48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ellerton
1.31
Weymouth Wales
1.77

Weymouth Wales creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ellerton
1.74
Weymouth Wales
2.12

allows per match

Ellerton
1.42
Weymouth Wales
0.88

finishing

Ellerton+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ellerton ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ellerton or draw
52%
Ellerton or Weymouth Wales
77%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
72%

Winning margin

Ellerton wins by 2+
12%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ellerton 1+ goals
73%
Ellerton 2+ goals
38%
Ellerton 3+ goals
14%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
83%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
53%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ellerton (draw refunded)
37%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ellerton at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ellerton attack 1.74 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.31

Weymouth Wales attack 2.12 + Ellerton defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ellerton scores more
28%
level
23%
Weymouth Wales scores more
48%

Weymouth Wales at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ellerton 1–2 Weymouth Wales

Weymouth Wales beat Ellerton 2-1 in Premier League on May 4, 2026.