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Weymouth Wales vs BDF — Premier League 2019

Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
FT
8 – 4
BDF
BDF
8/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Weymouth Wales65%
×Draw17%
BDF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weymouth Wales
2.70
BDF
1.38

Weymouth Wales creates 96% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Weymouth Wales
2.87
BDF
1.93

allows per match

Weymouth Wales
0.83
BDF
2.53

finishing

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par
BDF+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weymouth Wales ↓

BDF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Weymouth Wales or draw
82%
Weymouth Wales or BDF
83%
Draw or BDF
35%

Winning margin

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
44%
BDF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
93%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
75%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
50%
BDF 1+ goals
75%
BDF 2+ goals
40%
BDF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
78%
BDF (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weymouth Wales at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

BDF away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weymouth Wales attack 2.87 + BDF defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.70

BDF attack 1.93 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Weymouth Wales scores more
65%
level
17%
BDF scores more
18%

Weymouth Wales at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Weymouth Wales 8–4 BDF

Weymouth Wales beat BDF 8-4 in Premier League on August 9, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.