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Wexford Youths W vs Galway United W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Wexford Youths W
Wexford Youths W
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Galway United W
Galway United Wadvanced
A. Clancy 120+4' (pen)
N. Sinnott 120+3' (pen)
R. Jarrett 120+1' (pen), 54'
G. McGuinnes 120+5' (pen)
J. Slattery 120+4' (pen)
J. Erickson 120+3' (pen)
T. Kinnevey 120+1' (pen)
K. Thompson 70'
7/8/2023All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Semi-finalsFerrycarrig Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wexford Youths W42%
×Draw23%
Galway United W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wexford Youths W
1.73
Galway United W
1.55

Wexford Youths W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Wexford Youths W
2.80
Galway United W
1.50

allows per match

Wexford Youths W
1.60
Galway United W
0.67

finishing

Wexford Youths W+0.00on par
Galway United W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wexford Youths W ↓

Galway United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wexford Youths W or draw
65%
Wexford Youths W or Galway United W
77%
Draw or Galway United W
58%

Winning margin

Wexford Youths W wins by 2+
22%
Galway United W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wexford Youths W 1+ goals
82%
Wexford Youths W 2+ goals
52%
Wexford Youths W 3+ goals
25%
Galway United W 1+ goals
79%
Galway United W 2+ goals
46%
Galway United W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wexford Youths W (draw refunded)
55%
Galway United W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wexford Youths W at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Galway United W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wexford Youths W attack 2.80 + Galway United W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Galway United W attack 1.50 + Wexford Youths W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wexford Youths W scores more
42%
level
23%
Galway United W scores more
35%

Wexford Youths W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wexford Youths W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
R. Jarrett
70'
K. Thompson
120+1'
R. JarrettPenalty
120+1'
T. KinneveyPenalty
120+2'
K. MurphyMissed penalty
120+2'
K. ThompsonMissed penalty
120+3'
N. SinnottPenalty
120+3'
J. EricksonPenalty
120+4'
A. ClancyPenalty
120+4'
J. SlatteryPenalty
120+5'
C. RossiterMissed penalty
120+5'
G. McGuinnesPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wexford Youths W vs Galway United W

Wexford Youths W and Galway United W drew 1-1 in All-Island Cup - Women on July 8, 2023.

Goals: R. Jarrett (54', 120+1' pen), K. Thompson (70'), T. Kinnevey (120+1' pen), N. Sinnott (120+3' pen), J. Erickson (120+3' pen), A. Clancy (120+4' pen), J. Slattery (120+4' pen), G. McGuinnes (120+5' pen).

The match was played at Ferrycarrig Park in Newcastle, Crossabeg.