Wexford 2–2 Dundalk: Result & Stats | FAI Cup

Wexford

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dundalk

G. Shortt 66'

L. Lovic 55'

R. Benson 109' (pen)

R. O'Kane 73'

D. McMillan 37'

8/26/2022

FAI Cup · 2nd RoundFerrycarrig Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wexford58%

×Draw20%

Dundalk22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WexfordExpected goals in this matchDundalk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.38

Wexford

2.31

Dundalk

1.38

Wexford creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

3.33

creates per match

2.43

0.33

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Wexford

3.33

Dundalk

2.43

allows per match

Wexford

0.33

Dundalk

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wexford+0.00on par

Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wexford ↓

Dundalk →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Wexford or draw

78%

Wexford or Dundalk

80%

Draw or Dundalk

42%

Winning margin

Wexford wins by 2+

36%

Dundalk wins by 2+

Team goals

Wexford 1+ goals

90%

Wexford 2+ goals

67%

Wexford 3+ goals

40%

Dundalk 1+ goals

75%

Dundalk 2+ goals

40%

Dundalk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wexford (draw refunded)

72%

Dundalk (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wexford at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Dundalk away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wexford attack 3.33 + Dundalk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.31

Dundalk attack 2.43 + Wexford defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wexford scores more

58%

level

20%

Dundalk scores more

22%

Wexford at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wexford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

37'

55'

61'

61'

61'

66'

73'

74'

74'

83'

J. Martin← D. McMillan

86'

T. Considine← G. Shortt

90'

C. Crowley

91'

J. Mountney← R. McCourt

97'

A. Lewis

102'

M. Byrne← C. Crowley

107'

D. Corcoran← H. Groome

109'

R. BensonPenalty

113'

S. Bradley

115'

C. Davis

Wexford

Dundalk

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Shortt

Manager: I. Ryan

74'▲A. Dobbs←▼P. Cleary

74'▲C. Davis←▼A. Wells

86'▲T. Considine←▼G. Shortt

102'▲M. Byrne←▼C. Crowley

107'▲D. Corcoran←▼H. Groome

Wexford substitutes

DobbsDavisConsidineByrneCorcoranFrielFarrellFitzgeraldO'Leary

Manager: S. O'Donnell

61'▲A. Lewis←▼R. Hauge

61'▲R. O'Kane←▼J. Adams

61'▲R. Benson←▼K. Ward

83'▲J. Martin←▼D. McMillan

91'▲J. Mountney←▼R. McCourt

Dundalk substitutes

LewisO'KaneBensonMartinMountneyGartlandByrneCherrie

FAI Cup: Wexford 2–2 Dundalk

Wexford and Dundalk drew 2-2 in FAI Cup on August 26, 2022.

Goals: D. McMillan (37'), L. Lovic (55'), G. Shortt (66'), R. O'Kane (73'), R. Benson (109' pen).

The match was played at Ferrycarrig Park in Newcastle, Crossabeg.

Wexford vs Dundalk — FAI Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FAI Cup: Wexford 2–2 Dundalk