Wexford 2–0 Cobh Ramblers: Result & Stats

Wexford

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cobh Ramblers

G. Hodgins 77'

M. Rowe 9'

4/24/2026

First Division · Round 12Ferrycarrig Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Wexford39%

×Draw25%

Cobh Ramblers36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WexfordExpected goals in this matchCobh Ramblers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.39

Wexford

1.47

Cobh Ramblers

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

1.24

creates per match

1.22

1.55

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Wexford

1.24

Cobh Ramblers

1.22

allows per match

Wexford

1.55

Cobh Ramblers

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wexford+0.00on par

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wexford ↓

Cobh Ramblers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wexford or draw

64%

Wexford or Cobh Ramblers

75%

Draw or Cobh Ramblers

61%

Winning margin

Wexford wins by 2+

19%

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wexford 1+ goals

77%

Wexford 2+ goals

43%

Wexford 3+ goals

18%

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals

75%

Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals

40%

Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wexford (draw refunded)

52%

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wexford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.55 · 119 matches

Cobh Ramblers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.70 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wexford attack 1.24 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.22 + Wexford defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wexford scores more

39%

level

25%

Cobh Ramblers scores more

36%

Wexford at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wexford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Rowe

46'

R. Butler← E. Osam

49'

55'

65'

K. Harnett← R. Ritchie

65'

J. Larkin← M. Rowe

69'

R. Noonan← D. McGlade

69'

M. Carroll← J. Abbott

77'

G. Hodgins

79'

80'

81'

L. Doyle← G. Hodgins

81'

A. Adenopo← R. Brennan

87'

90+1'

K. Dignam← Z. Abada

Wexford

Cobh

42

2

5

6

15

39

▼

Abbott

8

Gourdie

16

Crowe

10

▼

McGlade

7

Waweru

14

▼

20

2

5

21

3

▼

Osam

8

▼

Abada

15

▼

Ritchie

11

Wynne

7

⚽

▼

Rowe

24

Doyle

19

⚽

▼

Hodgins

Manager: Stephen Elliott

46'▲R. Butler←▼E. Osam

65'▲K. Harnett←▼R. Ritchie

65'▲J. Larkin←▼M. Rowe

81'▲L. Doyle←▼G. Hodgins

90+1'▲K. Dignam←▼Z. Abada

Wexford substitutes

1Moody9Flynn26Dignam27Scanlon10Harnett14Doyle23Larkin6Larkin25Butler16Oladiti

69'▲R. Noonan←▼D. McGlade

69'▲M. Carroll←▼J. Abbott

81'▲A. Adenopo←▼R. Brennan

Cobh Ramblers substitutes

12Moloney3Linehan4Coleman9O’Neill11Adenopo17Noonan18Osorio22Carroll38Bervet