Wexford 1–2 Cabinteely: Result & Stats

Wexford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cabinteely

3/26/2021

First Division · Round 1Ferrycarrig Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wexford35%

×Draw25%

Cabinteely40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WexfordExpected goals in this matchCabinteely

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.47

Wexford

1.37

Cabinteely

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 36 away

1.24

creates per match

1.39

1.55

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Wexford

1.24

Cabinteely

1.39

allows per match

Wexford

1.55

Cabinteely

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wexford+0.00on par

Cabinteely+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wexford ↓

Cabinteely →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wexford or draw

60%

Wexford or Cabinteely

75%

Draw or Cabinteely

65%

Winning margin

Wexford wins by 2+

16%

Cabinteely wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wexford 1+ goals

75%

Wexford 2+ goals

40%

Wexford 3+ goals

16%

Cabinteely 1+ goals

77%

Cabinteely 2+ goals

43%

Cabinteely 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wexford (draw refunded)

47%

Cabinteely (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wexford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.55 · 119 matches

Cabinteely away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wexford attack 1.24 + Cabinteely defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cabinteely attack 1.39 + Wexford defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wexford scores more

35%

level

25%

Cabinteely scores more

40%

Cabinteely at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cabinteely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff