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Wexford vs Bray Wanderers — First Division 2019

Wexford
Wexford
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
8/22/2025First DivisionFirst Division · Round 28Ferrycarrig Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Wexford35%
×Draw26%
Bray Wanderers39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wexford
1.32
Bray Wanderers
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

creates per match

Wexford
1.24
Bray Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Wexford
1.55
Bray Wanderers
1.41

finishing

Wexford+0.00on par
Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wexford ↓

Bray Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wexford or draw
61%
Wexford or Bray Wanderers
74%
Draw or Bray Wanderers
65%

Winning margin

Wexford wins by 2+
16%
Bray Wanderers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wexford 1+ goals
73%
Wexford 2+ goals
38%
Wexford 3+ goals
15%
Bray Wanderers 1+ goals
75%
Bray Wanderers 2+ goals
41%
Bray Wanderers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wexford (draw refunded)
48%
Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wexford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.55 · 119 matches

Bray Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wexford attack 1.24 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bray Wanderers attack 1.24 + Wexford defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wexford scores more
35%
level
26%
Bray Wanderers scores more
39%

Bray Wanderers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bray Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wexford vs Bray Wanderers

Bray Wanderers beat Wexford 1-0 in First Division on August 22, 2025.

The match was played at Ferrycarrig Park in Wexford.