Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Weston vs Tampa Bay United — USL League Two 2018

Weston
Weston
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tampa Bay United
Tampa Bay United
7/5/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 60Broward College South Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Weston41%
×Draw25%
Tampa Bay United34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weston
1.48
Tampa Bay United
1.33

Weston creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

creates per match

Weston
1.29
Tampa Bay United
1.28

allows per match

Weston
1.39
Tampa Bay United
1.68

finishing

Weston+0.00on par
Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston ↓

Tampa Bay United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Weston or draw
66%
Weston or Tampa Bay United
75%
Draw or Tampa Bay United
59%

Winning margin

Weston wins by 2+
20%
Tampa Bay United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Weston 1+ goals
77%
Weston 2+ goals
43%
Weston 3+ goals
19%
Tampa Bay United 1+ goals
74%
Tampa Bay United 2+ goals
38%
Tampa Bay United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Weston (draw refunded)
55%
Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Tampa Bay United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston attack 1.29 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tampa Bay United attack 1.28 + Weston defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Weston scores more
41%
level
25%
Tampa Bay United scores more
34%

Weston at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Weston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weston vs Tampa Bay United

Weston beat Tampa Bay United 3-1 in USL League Two on July 5, 2022.

The match was played at Broward College South Campus in Pembroke Pines, Florida.