Weston 2–1 FC Florida II: Result & Stats

Weston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Florida II

7/13/2022

USL League Two · Round 70Broward College South Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Weston50%

×Draw25%

FC Florida II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WestonExpected goals in this matchFC Florida II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.03

Weston

1.56

FC Florida II

1.03

Weston creates 51% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

0.67

1.39

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Weston

1.29

FC Florida II

0.67

allows per match

Weston

1.39

FC Florida II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weston+0.00on par

FC Florida II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston ↓

FC Florida II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Weston or draw

75%

Weston or FC Florida II

75%

Draw or FC Florida II

50%

Winning margin

Weston wins by 2+

26%

FC Florida II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Weston 1+ goals

79%

Weston 2+ goals

46%

Weston 3+ goals

21%

FC Florida II 1+ goals

64%

FC Florida II 2+ goals

28%

FC Florida II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Weston (draw refunded)

66%

FC Florida II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

FC Florida II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston attack 1.29 + FC Florida II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Florida II attack 0.67 + Weston defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Weston scores more

50%

level

25%

FC Florida II scores more

25%

Weston at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Weston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff