Weston-super-Mare 1–2 Salisbury: Result & Stats

Weston-super-Mare

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Salisbury

S. Pearson 80'

C. Watts 86'

A. Elliott-Wheeler 14'

2/11/2025

League #51 · South - 32The Optima Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Weston-super-Mare51%

×Draw23%

Salisbury26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weston-super-MareExpected goals in this matchSalisbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.19

Weston-super-Mare

1.77

Salisbury

1.19

Weston-super-Mare creates 49% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

1.80

creates per match

1.07

1.30

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Weston-super-Mare

1.80

Salisbury

1.07

allows per match

Weston-super-Mare

1.30

Salisbury

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weston-super-Mare+0.00on par

Salisbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston-super-Mare ↓

Salisbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Weston-super-Mare or draw

74%

Weston-super-Mare or Salisbury

77%

Draw or Salisbury

49%

Winning margin

Weston-super-Mare wins by 2+

28%

Salisbury wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Weston-super-Mare 1+ goals

83%

Weston-super-Mare 2+ goals

53%

Weston-super-Mare 3+ goals

26%

Salisbury 1+ goals

70%

Salisbury 2+ goals

33%

Salisbury 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Weston-super-Mare (draw refunded)

66%

Salisbury (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston-super-Mare at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Salisbury away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston-super-Mare attack 1.80 + Salisbury defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Weston-super-Mare defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Weston-super-Mare scores more

51%

level

23%

Salisbury scores more

26%

Weston-super-Mare at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Weston-super-Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Elliott-Wheeler

55'

R. Reid← J. Pope

55'

L. Brown← N. Coppin

69'

C. Fasanmade← D. Fitchett

80'

S. Pearson

86'

C. Watts

90+2'

S. Avery← J. Seberry

90'

Jaden Pérez← A. Elliott-Wheeler

Weston-super-Mare

Salisbury

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Bartlett

55'▲R. Reid←▼J. Pope

90+2'▲S. Avery←▼J. Seberry

Weston-super-Mare substitutes

ReidAveryCroftLewisJenkins

Manager: B. Dutton

55'▲L. Brown←▼N. Coppin

69'▲C. Fasanmade←▼D. Fitchett

90'▲Jaden Pérez←▼A. Elliott-Wheeler

Salisbury substitutes

BrownFasanmadePérezDoreLewis

Match Recap: Weston-super-Mare vs Salisbury

Salisbury beat Weston-super-Mare 2-1 in League #51 on February 11, 2025.

Goals: A. Elliott-Wheeler (14'), S. Pearson (80'), C. Watts (86').

The match was played at The Optima Stadium in Weston-super-Mare, Somerset.

Weston-super-Mare vs Salisbury — League #51 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Weston-super-Mare vs Salisbury