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Weston-super-Mare vs Salisbury — League #60 2026

Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare
FT
3 – 3
Salisbury
Salisbury
9/17/2019League #60League #60 · Southern South - 8Woodspring Stadium (Weston-super-Mare, Somerset)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Weston-super-Mare45%
×Draw20%
Salisbury36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weston-super-Mare
2.29
Salisbury
2.04

Weston-super-Mare creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Weston-super-Mare
2.25
Salisbury
2.33

allows per match

Weston-super-Mare
1.75
Salisbury
2.33

finishing

Weston-super-Mare+0.00on par
Salisbury+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston-super-Mare ↓

Salisbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Weston-super-Mare or draw
64%
Weston-super-Mare or Salisbury
80%
Draw or Salisbury
55%

Winning margin

Weston-super-Mare wins by 2+
26%
Salisbury wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Weston-super-Mare 1+ goals
90%
Weston-super-Mare 2+ goals
66%
Weston-super-Mare 3+ goals
40%
Salisbury 1+ goals
87%
Salisbury 2+ goals
60%
Salisbury 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Weston-super-Mare (draw refunded)
56%
Salisbury (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston-super-Mare at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Salisbury away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston-super-Mare attack 2.25 + Salisbury defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Salisbury attack 2.33 + Weston-super-Mare defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Weston-super-Mare scores more
45%
level
20%
Salisbury scores more
36%

Weston-super-Mare at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Weston-super-Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weston-super-Mare vs Salisbury

Weston-super-Mare and Salisbury drew 3-3 in League #60 on September 17, 2019.

The match was played at Woodspring Stadium (Weston-super-Mare, Somerset).