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Weston Bears vs Lambton Jaffas — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Weston Bears
Weston Bears
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lambton Jaffas
Lambton Jaffas
7/9/2025Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 6Rockwell Automation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Weston Bears36%
×Draw23%
Lambton Jaffas42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weston Bears
1.62
Lambton Jaffas
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 83 away

creates per match

Weston Bears
2.08
Lambton Jaffas
1.92

allows per match

Weston Bears
1.62
Lambton Jaffas
1.16

finishing

Weston Bears+0.00on par
Lambton Jaffas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston Bears ↓

Lambton Jaffas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Weston Bears or draw
58%
Weston Bears or Lambton Jaffas
77%
Draw or Lambton Jaffas
64%

Winning margin

Weston Bears wins by 2+
17%
Lambton Jaffas wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Weston Bears 1+ goals
80%
Weston Bears 2+ goals
48%
Weston Bears 3+ goals
22%
Lambton Jaffas 1+ goals
83%
Lambton Jaffas 2+ goals
53%
Lambton Jaffas 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Weston Bears (draw refunded)
46%
Lambton Jaffas (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston Bears at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

Lambton Jaffas away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston Bears attack 2.08 + Lambton Jaffas defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.62

Lambton Jaffas attack 1.92 + Weston Bears defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Weston Bears scores more
36%
level
23%
Lambton Jaffas scores more
42%

Lambton Jaffas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lambton Jaffas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weston Bears vs Lambton Jaffas

Lambton Jaffas beat Weston Bears 2-0 in Northern NSW NPL on July 9, 2025.

The match was played at Rockwell Automation Park in Newcastle.