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Westlandia vs OFC Oostzaan — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Westlandia
Westlandia
FT
3 – 1
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
1/26/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 19Sportpark De Hoge Bomen (Naaldwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Westlandia40%
×Draw24%
OFC Oostzaan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westlandia
1.62
OFC Oostzaan
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Westlandia
1.63
OFC Oostzaan
1.74

allows per match

Westlandia
1.33
OFC Oostzaan
1.61

finishing

Westlandia+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westlandia ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Westlandia or draw
64%
Westlandia or OFC Oostzaan
76%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
60%

Winning margin

Westlandia wins by 2+
20%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Westlandia 1+ goals
80%
Westlandia 2+ goals
48%
Westlandia 3+ goals
22%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
79%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
45%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Westlandia (draw refunded)
52%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westlandia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westlandia attack 1.63 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.74 + Westlandia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Westlandia scores more
40%
level
24%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
36%

Westlandia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Westlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Westlandia 3–1 OFC Oostzaan

Westlandia beat OFC Oostzaan 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark De Hoge Bomen (Naaldwijk).