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Westlandia vs Hercules — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Westlandia
Westlandia
CANC
13:00
Hercules
Hercules
11/29/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 13Sportpark De Hoge Bomen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Westlandia35%
×Draw24%
Hercules40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westlandia
1.44
Hercules
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Westlandia
1.63
Hercules
1.80

allows per match

Westlandia
1.33
Hercules
1.24

finishing

Westlandia+0.00on par
Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westlandia ↓

Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Westlandia or draw
60%
Westlandia or Hercules
76%
Draw or Hercules
65%

Winning margin

Westlandia wins by 2+
16%
Hercules wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Westlandia 1+ goals
76%
Westlandia 2+ goals
42%
Westlandia 3+ goals
18%
Hercules 1+ goals
79%
Hercules 2+ goals
46%
Hercules 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Westlandia (draw refunded)
47%
Hercules (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westlandia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Hercules away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westlandia attack 1.63 + Hercules defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hercules attack 1.80 + Westlandia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Westlandia scores more
35%
level
24%
Hercules scores more
40%

Hercules at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Westlandia host Hercules

November 29, 2020: Westlandia take on Hercules in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Westlandia host Hercules at Sportpark De Hoge Bomen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.