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Westlandia vs GVV Unitas — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Westlandia
Westlandia
CANC
12:00
GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
4/11/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Westlandia51%
×Draw23%
GVV Unitas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westlandia
1.84
GVV Unitas
1.27

Westlandia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 54 away

creates per match

Westlandia
1.63
GVV Unitas
1.22

allows per match

Westlandia
1.33
GVV Unitas
2.06

finishing

Westlandia+0.00on par
GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westlandia ↓

GVV Unitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Westlandia or draw
74%
Westlandia or GVV Unitas
77%
Draw or GVV Unitas
49%

Winning margin

Westlandia wins by 2+
28%
GVV Unitas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Westlandia 1+ goals
84%
Westlandia 2+ goals
55%
Westlandia 3+ goals
28%
GVV Unitas 1+ goals
72%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
36%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Westlandia (draw refunded)
66%
GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westlandia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westlandia attack 1.63 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + Westlandia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Westlandia scores more
51%
level
23%
GVV Unitas scores more
26%

Westlandia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Westlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Westlandia face GVV Unitas (Derde Divisie - Sunday)

Derde Divisie - Sunday returns with Westlandia hosting GVV Unitas. Match starts April 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.