Westfalia Rhynern vs TuS Haltern

Westfalia Rhynern

CANC

13:00

TuS Haltern

4/5/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 29VIACTIV-ARENA im Papenloh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Westfalia Rhynern60%

×Draw20%

TuS Haltern20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Westfalia RhynernExpected goals in this matchTuS Haltern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.25

Westfalia Rhynern

2.27

TuS Haltern

1.25

Westfalia Rhynern creates 82% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

2.19

creates per match

1.40

1.10

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Westfalia Rhynern

2.19

TuS Haltern

1.40

allows per match

Westfalia Rhynern

1.10

TuS Haltern

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par

TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Rhynern ↓

TuS Haltern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Westfalia Rhynern or draw

80%

Westfalia Rhynern or TuS Haltern

80%

Draw or TuS Haltern

40%

Winning margin

Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+

38%

TuS Haltern wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals

90%

Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals

66%

Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals

39%

TuS Haltern 1+ goals

71%

TuS Haltern 2+ goals

36%

TuS Haltern 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)

75%

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Rhynern at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 89 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Rhynern attack 2.19 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.27

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Westfalia Rhynern scores more

60%

level

20%

TuS Haltern scores more

20%

Westfalia Rhynern at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff