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Westfalia Rhynern vs Meinerzhagen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
FT
6 – 0
Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
11/28/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 14VIACTIV-ARENA im Papenloh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Westfalia Rhynern57%
×Draw20%
Meinerzhagen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Rhynern
2.20
Meinerzhagen
1.33

Westfalia Rhynern creates 65% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

Westfalia Rhynern
2.19
Meinerzhagen
1.55

allows per match

Westfalia Rhynern
1.10
Meinerzhagen
2.20

finishing

Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par
Meinerzhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Rhynern ↓

Meinerzhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Westfalia Rhynern or draw
77%
Westfalia Rhynern or Meinerzhagen
80%
Draw or Meinerzhagen
43%

Winning margin

Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
35%
Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
89%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
64%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
37%
Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
74%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
38%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
71%
Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Rhynern at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 89 matches

Meinerzhagen away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Rhynern attack 2.19 + Meinerzhagen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.20

Meinerzhagen attack 1.55 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Westfalia Rhynern scores more
57%
level
20%
Meinerzhagen scores more
23%

Westfalia Rhynern at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Westfalia Rhynern vs Meinerzhagen

Westfalia Rhynern beat Meinerzhagen 6-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at VIACTIV-ARENA im Papenloh in Hamm.