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Westfalia Rhynern vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
CANC
13:30
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
11/15/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 13VIACTIV-ARENA im Papenloh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Rhynern50%
×Draw22%
Holzwickeder SC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Rhynern
1.93
Holzwickeder SC
1.41

Westfalia Rhynern creates 37% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

creates per match

Westfalia Rhynern
2.19
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

Westfalia Rhynern
1.10
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Rhynern ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Westfalia Rhynern or draw
72%
Westfalia Rhynern or Holzwickeder SC
78%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
50%

Winning margin

Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
28%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
85%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
57%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
30%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
76%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
41%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
64%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Rhynern at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 89 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Rhynern attack 2.19 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Westfalia Rhynern scores more
50%
level
22%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
28%

Westfalia Rhynern at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Westfalia Rhynern vs Holzwickeder SC — Match Preview

Westfalia Rhynern face Holzwickeder SC on November 15, 2020 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Westfalia Rhynern host Holzwickeder SC at VIACTIV-ARENA im Papenloh.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.