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Westfalia Rhynern vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
FT
7 – 1
HT: 6 – 0
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
W. Wagner 52'
R. Lopez 45', 7'
A. Seber 32'
J. Wagner 30'
M. Deljiu 25'
L. Kourouma 16'
Y. Kellner 84'
3/2/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Kümpel+Hellmeister-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Rhynern70%
×Draw16%
Concordia Wiemelhausen14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Rhynern
2.81
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.19

Westfalia Rhynern creates 136% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

creates per match

Westfalia Rhynern
2.19
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Westfalia Rhynern
1.10
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Rhynern ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Westfalia Rhynern or draw
86%
Westfalia Rhynern or Concordia Wiemelhausen
84%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
30%

Winning margin

Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
50%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
94%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
76%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
52%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
70%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
33%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
84%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Rhynern at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 89 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Rhynern attack 2.19 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.81

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Westfalia Rhynern scores more
70%
level
16%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
14%

Westfalia Rhynern at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
R. Lopez
16'
L. Kourouma
25'
M. Deljiu
30'
J. Wagner
32'
A. Seber
38'
E. Hiller
45'
R. Lopez
52'
W. Wagner
84'
Y. Kellner

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Westfalia Rhynern 7–1 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Westfalia Rhynern beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 7-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 2, 2025.

Goals: R. Lopez (7', 45'), L. Kourouma (16'), M. Deljiu (25'), J. Wagner (30'), A. Seber (32'), W. Wagner (52'), Y. Kellner (84').

The match was played at Kümpel+Hellmeister-Arena in Hamm.