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Westfalia Herne vs Westfalia Rhynern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
CANC
14:15
Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
12/20/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 17ABISOL-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Herne22%
×Draw20%
Westfalia Rhynern58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Herne
1.31
Westfalia Rhynern
2.23

Westfalia Rhynern creates 70% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

creates per match

Westfalia Herne
1.11
Westfalia Rhynern
1.85

allows per match

Westfalia Herne
2.61
Westfalia Rhynern
1.51

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par
Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

Westfalia Rhynern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw
42%
Westfalia Herne or Westfalia Rhynern
80%
Draw or Westfalia Rhynern
78%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
9%
Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
73%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
38%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
14%
Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
89%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
65%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
27%
Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

Westfalia Rhynern away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 1.11 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Westfalia Rhynern attack 1.85 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more
22%
level
20%
Westfalia Rhynern scores more
58%

Westfalia Rhynern at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Westfalia Herne vs Westfalia Rhynern — Match Preview

Westfalia Herne face Westfalia Rhynern on December 20, 2020 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Westfalia Herne host Westfalia Rhynern at ABISOL-ARENA.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.