Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Westfalia Herne vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
5/5/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Relegation Round - 6Polygonvatro-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Herne34%
×Draw21%
TuS Haltern45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Herne
1.73
TuS Haltern
2.00

TuS Haltern creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Westfalia Herne
1.11
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Westfalia Herne
2.61
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw
55%
Westfalia Herne or TuS Haltern
79%
Draw or TuS Haltern
66%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
17%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
82%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
52%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
25%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
86%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
59%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
43%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 1.11 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.73

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more
34%
level
21%
TuS Haltern scores more
45%

TuS Haltern at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TuS Haltern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Westfalia Herne vs TuS Haltern

Westfalia Herne beat TuS Haltern 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 5, 2022.

The match was played at Polygonvatro-Arena in Herne.