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Westfalia Herne vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
CANC
13:15
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
5/30/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 39ABISOL-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Herne21%
×Draw20%
Sportfreunde Siegen58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Herne
1.27
Sportfreunde Siegen
2.20

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

creates per match

Westfalia Herne
1.11
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.79

allows per match

Westfalia Herne
2.61
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.44

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw
42%
Westfalia Herne or Sportfreunde Siegen
80%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
79%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
9%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
72%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
36%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
14%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
89%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
64%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
27%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 1.11 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more
21%
level
20%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
58%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Westfalia Herne host Sportfreunde Siegen

May 30, 2021: Westfalia Herne take on Sportfreunde Siegen in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Westfalia Herne host Sportfreunde Siegen at ABISOL-ARENA.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.