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Westfalia Herne vs Borussia Dortmund II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
FT
0 – 1
Borussia Dortmund II
Borussia Dortmund II
7/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Glück-Auf-Stadion Am Holzplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Westfalia Herne19%
×Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund II58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Herne
0.91
Borussia Dortmund II
1.78

Borussia Dortmund II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Westfalia Herne
0.25
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

allows per match

Westfalia Herne
2.00
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

Borussia Dortmund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw
42%
Westfalia Herne or Borussia Dortmund II
77%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund II
81%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
6%
Borussia Dortmund II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
60%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
23%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
6%
Borussia Dortmund II 1+ goals
83%
Borussia Dortmund II 2+ goals
53%
Borussia Dortmund II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
25%
Borussia Dortmund II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Borussia Dortmund II away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 0.25 + Borussia Dortmund II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.91

Borussia Dortmund II attack 1.56 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more
19%
level
23%
Borussia Dortmund II scores more
58%

Borussia Dortmund II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Westfalia Herne vs Borussia Dortmund II

Borussia Dortmund II beat Westfalia Herne 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 29, 2020.

The match was played at Glück-Auf-Stadion Am Holzplatz in Herne.