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Western United vs Sydney — Australia Cup 2021

Western United
Western United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sydney
Sydneyadvanced
7/29/2025Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 32Ironbark Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Western United28%
×Draw26%
Sydney46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United
1.06
Sydney
1.44

Sydney creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Western United
1.00
Sydney
1.88

allows per match

Western United
1.00
Sydney
1.13

finishing

Western United+0.00on par
Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Western United or draw
54%
Western United or Sydney
74%
Draw or Sydney
72%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+
11%
Sydney wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals
65%
Western United 2+ goals
29%
Western United 3+ goals
9%
Sydney 1+ goals
76%
Sydney 2+ goals
42%
Sydney 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)
38%
Sydney (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.00 + Sydney defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sydney attack 1.88 + Western United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Western United scores more
28%
level
26%
Sydney scores more
46%

Sydney at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western United vs Sydney

Sydney beat Western United 1-0 in Australia Cup on July 29, 2025.

The match was played at Ironbark Fields in Melbourne.