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Western United vs Perth Glory — A-League 2018

Western United
Western United
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Perth Glory
Perth Glory
4/16/2022A-LeagueA-League · Round 24University of Tasmania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Western United46%
×Draw24%
Perth Glory30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United
1.69
Perth Glory
1.32

Western United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 106 away

creates per match

Western United
1.54
Perth Glory
1.23

allows per match

Western United
1.41
Perth Glory
1.83

finishing

Western United+0.00on par
Perth Glory+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Perth Glory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Western United or draw
70%
Western United or Perth Glory
76%
Draw or Perth Glory
54%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+
24%
Perth Glory wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals
82%
Western United 2+ goals
50%
Western United 3+ goals
24%
Perth Glory 1+ goals
73%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
38%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)
61%
Perth Glory (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Perth Glory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.54 + Perth Glory defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Perth Glory attack 1.23 + Western United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Western United scores more
46%
level
24%
Perth Glory scores more
30%

Western United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Western United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western United vs Perth Glory

Western United beat Perth Glory 6-0 in A-League on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at University of Tasmania Stadium in Launceston.