Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Perth Glory vs Western United — A-League 2018

Perth Glory
Perth Glory
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Western United
Western United
11/22/2024A-LeagueA-League · Round 5Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Perth Glory42%
×Draw23%
Western United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth Glory
1.68
Western United
1.52

Perth Glory creates 11% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 84 away

creates per match

Perth Glory
1.60
Western United
1.49

allows per match

Perth Glory
1.55
Western United
1.75

finishing

Perth Glory+0.00on par
Western United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory ↓

Western United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Perth Glory or draw
65%
Perth Glory or Western United
77%
Draw or Western United
58%

Winning margin

Perth Glory wins by 2+
21%
Western United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Perth Glory 1+ goals
81%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
50%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
24%
Western United 1+ goals
78%
Western United 2+ goals
45%
Western United 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory (draw refunded)
54%
Western United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Western United away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory attack 1.60 + Western United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Western United attack 1.49 + Perth Glory defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Perth Glory scores more
42%
level
23%
Western United scores more
35%

Perth Glory at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Perth Glory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Perth Glory 1–3 Western United

Western United beat Perth Glory 3-1 in A-League on November 22, 2024.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.