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Western United vs Newcastle Jets — Australia Cup 2021

Western United
Western United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
11/13/2021Australia CupAustralia Cup · Play-offsGMHBA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Western United21%
×Draw22%
Newcastle Jets57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United
1.13
Newcastle Jets
2.00

Newcastle Jets creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Western United
1.00
Newcastle Jets
3.00

allows per match

Western United
1.00
Newcastle Jets
1.25

finishing

Western United+0.00on par
Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Newcastle Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Western United or draw
43%
Western United or Newcastle Jets
78%
Draw or Newcastle Jets
79%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+
8%
Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals
68%
Western United 2+ goals
31%
Western United 3+ goals
11%
Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
86%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
59%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)
27%
Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Newcastle Jets away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.00 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Newcastle Jets attack 3.00 + Western United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Western United scores more
21%
level
22%
Newcastle Jets scores more
57%

Newcastle Jets at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Western United 2–1 Newcastle Jets

Western United beat Newcastle Jets 2-1 in Australia Cup on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at GMHBA Stadium in Geelong.