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Newcastle Jets vs Western United — Australia Cup 2021

Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Western United
Western United
7/24/2024Australia CupAustralia Cup · Play-offsLarrakia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Newcastle Jets49%
×Draw21%
Western United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets
2.13
Western United
1.63

Newcastle Jets creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets
2.50
Western United
1.75

allows per match

Newcastle Jets
1.50
Western United
1.75

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par
Western United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Western United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw
70%
Newcastle Jets or Western United
79%
Draw or Western United
51%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
29%
Western United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
88%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
63%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
35%
Western United 1+ goals
80%
Western United 2+ goals
48%
Western United 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
62%
Western United (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Western United away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 2.50 + Western United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Western United attack 1.75 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more
49%
level
21%
Western United scores more
30%

Newcastle Jets at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newcastle Jets vs Western United

Newcastle Jets beat Western United 4-1 in Australia Cup on July 24, 2024.

The match was played at Larrakia Park in Darwin.