Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Western United II vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Western United II
Western United II
FT
0 – 3
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
3/5/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 3City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Western United II47%
×Draw22%
Pascoe Vale31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United II
2.02
Pascoe Vale
1.61

Western United II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

creates per match

Western United II
2.45
Pascoe Vale
1.74

allows per match

Western United II
1.49
Pascoe Vale
1.58

finishing

Western United II+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United II ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Western United II or draw
69%
Western United II or Pascoe Vale
78%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
53%

Winning margin

Western United II wins by 2+
27%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Western United II 1+ goals
87%
Western United II 2+ goals
60%
Western United II 3+ goals
33%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
80%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
48%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Western United II (draw refunded)
60%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United II at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United II attack 2.45 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.02

Pascoe Vale attack 1.74 + Western United II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Western United II scores more
47%
level
22%
Pascoe Vale scores more
31%

Western United II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Western United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western United II vs Pascoe Vale

Pascoe Vale beat Western United II 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.