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Western United II vs Northcote City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Western United II
Western United II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Northcote City
Northcote City
3/16/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 6Ironbark Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Western United II50%
×Draw21%
Northcote City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United II
2.15
Northcote City
1.60

Western United II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 67 away

creates per match

Western United II
2.45
Northcote City
1.72

allows per match

Western United II
1.49
Northcote City
1.84

finishing

Western United II+0.00on par
Northcote City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United II ↓

Northcote City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Western United II or draw
71%
Western United II or Northcote City
79%
Draw or Northcote City
50%

Winning margin

Western United II wins by 2+
30%
Northcote City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Western United II 1+ goals
88%
Western United II 2+ goals
63%
Western United II 3+ goals
36%
Northcote City 1+ goals
80%
Northcote City 2+ goals
47%
Northcote City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Western United II (draw refunded)
63%
Northcote City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United II at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Northcote City away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United II attack 2.45 + Northcote City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.15

Northcote City attack 1.72 + Western United II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Western United II scores more
50%
level
21%
Northcote City scores more
29%

Western United II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Western United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western United II vs Northcote City

Western United II beat Northcote City 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Ironbark Fields in Melbourne.