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Western United II vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Western United II
Western United II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
A. Back 90+1'
A. Al Sheikh 29'
M. Leonard 27' (pen)
A. Chapman 58'
G. Nepomuceno 4'
5/10/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Western United II52%
×Draw21%
North Geelong Warriors27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United II
2.17
North Geelong Warriors
1.54

Western United II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 40 away

creates per match

Western United II
2.45
North Geelong Warriors
1.60

allows per match

Western United II
1.49
North Geelong Warriors
1.90

finishing

Western United II+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United II ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Western United II or draw
73%
Western United II or North Geelong Warriors
79%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
48%

Winning margin

Western United II wins by 2+
31%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Western United II 1+ goals
89%
Western United II 2+ goals
64%
Western United II 3+ goals
36%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
79%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
45%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Western United II (draw refunded)
65%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United II at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United II attack 2.45 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.17

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.60 + Western United II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Western United II scores more
52%
level
21%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
27%

Western United II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Western United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
G. Nepomuceno
27'
M. LeonardPenalty
29'
A. Al Sheikh
58'
A. Chapman
90+1'
A. Back

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western United II 3 – 2 North Geelong Warriors

Western United II beat North Geelong Warriors 3-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 10, 2026.

Goals: G. Nepomuceno (4'), M. Leonard (27' pen), A. Al Sheikh (29'), A. Chapman (58'), A. Back (90+1').