Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Wellington Phoenix — A-League 2018

Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix
K. Yeboah 74'
7/31/2020A-LeagueA-League · Round 29Bankwest Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers45%
×Draw24%
Wellington Phoenix31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.65
Wellington Phoenix
1.35

Western Sydney Wanderers creates 22% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.56
Wellington Phoenix
1.29

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.41
Wellington Phoenix
1.73

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par
Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers ↓

Wellington Phoenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers or draw
69%
Western Sydney Wanderers or Wellington Phoenix
76%
Draw or Wellington Phoenix
55%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
23%
Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
81%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
49%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
23%
Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
74%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
39%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
59%
Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.73 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.56 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.29 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
45%
level
24%
Wellington Phoenix scores more
31%

Western Sydney Wanderers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Dylan McGowanWestern Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney Wanderers · D
7.2

Match Events

19'
J. O'Doherty
21'
L. Fenton
27'
N. Muller← K. Yeboah
46'
J. O'Doherty← P. Schwegler
55'
L. DeVere
62'
C. Devlin
65'
L. DeVere
65'
L. DeVere
68'
G. Hooper← L. Mcging
68'
U. Davila← J. Sotirio
74'
K. Yeboah↳ T. Russell
75'
C. Devlin← A. Rufer
75'
C. Mccowatt← R. Piscopo
82'
P. Ziegler← T. Mourdoukoutas
82'
S. Cox← M. Adam
83'
T. Russell← B. Kamau
86'
M. Steinmann← B. Waine

Possession

45%Western

Shots

13Western

Pass accuracy

49%Western

Statistics

WesternWellington
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots6
2Corners6
20Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots6
3On Target1
7Off Target3
3Blocked2
6Inside Box1
7Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
412Total Passes494
333Accurate Passes412
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls12
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1

A-League: Western Sydney Wanderers 1–0 Wellington Phoenix

Western Sydney Wanderers beat Wellington Phoenix 1-0 in A-League on July 31, 2020.

Goals: K. Yeboah (74').

Wellington Phoenix controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Bankwest Stadium in Sydney.