Wellington Phoenix 2–0 Western Sydney Wanderers

Wellington Phoenix

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Western Sydney Wanderers

12/23/2023

A-League · Round 9Sky Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Wellington Phoenix44%

×Draw24%

Western Sydney Wanderers33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wellington PhoenixExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.41

Wellington Phoenix

1.67

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.41

Wellington Phoenix creates 18% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 105 away

1.57

creates per match

1.51

1.31

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Wellington Phoenix

1.57

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.51

allows per match

Wellington Phoenix

1.31

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wellington Phoenix ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wellington Phoenix or draw

67%

Wellington Phoenix or Western Sydney Wanderers

76%

Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers

56%

Winning margin

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals

81%

Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals

50%

Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

76%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

41%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)

57%

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wellington Phoenix at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.57 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.67

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.51 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wellington Phoenix scores more

44%

level

24%

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

33%

Wellington Phoenix at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wellington Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff