Western Sydney Wanderers 2–1 Macarthur

Western Sydney Wanderers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Macarthur

2/16/2025

A-League · Round 19CommBank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers44%

×Draw24%

Macarthur32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western Sydney WanderersExpected goals in this matchMacarthur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.40

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.68

Macarthur

1.40

Western Sydney Wanderers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 81 away

1.56

creates per match

1.38

1.41

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.56

Macarthur

1.38

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.41

Macarthur

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers ↓

Macarthur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers or draw

68%

Western Sydney Wanderers or Macarthur

76%

Draw or Macarthur

56%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

23%

Macarthur wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

81%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

50%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

24%

Macarthur 1+ goals

75%

Macarthur 2+ goals

41%

Macarthur 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

58%

Macarthur (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Macarthur away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.56 + Macarthur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.68

Macarthur attack 1.38 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

44%

level

24%

Macarthur scores more

32%

Western Sydney Wanderers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff