Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3–1 Sutherland Sharks

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sutherland Sharks

N. Blair 80', 32'

D. Grdic 51'

L. Sciuriaga 31'

2/17/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 1Wanderers Football Park Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2339%

×Draw24%

Sutherland Sharks37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western Sydney Wanderers U23Expected goals in this matchSutherland Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.52

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

1.56

Sutherland Sharks

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 91 away

1.47

creates per match

1.29

1.74

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

1.47

Sutherland Sharks

1.29

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

1.74

Sutherland Sharks

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U23+0.00on par

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 ↓

Sutherland Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or draw

63%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or Sutherland Sharks

76%

Draw or Sutherland Sharks

61%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 wins by 2+

19%

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1+ goals

79%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2+ goals

46%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3+ goals

21%

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals

78%

Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals

45%

Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (draw refunded)

51%

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Sutherland Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 attack 1.47 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.29 + Western Sydney Wanderers U23 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 scores more

39%

level

24%

Sutherland Sharks scores more

37%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

31'

L. Sciuriaga

32'

N. Blair

51'

D. Grdic

80'

N. Blair

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff