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Sutherland Sharks vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
T. van Amerongen 90'
R. Shoueiki 23'
J. Cameron 90'
L. Sattout 83'
A. Waraga 29'
3/6/2026New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 5Seymour Shaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sutherland Sharks34%
×Draw23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2343%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutherland Sharks
1.49
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.69

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.00
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.79

allows per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.59
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.98

finishing

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U23+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutherland Sharks ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sutherland Sharks or draw
57%
Sutherland Sharks or Western Sydney Wanderers U23
77%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U23
66%

Winning margin

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
16%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
77%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
44%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
19%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1+ goals
82%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2+ goals
50%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
44%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutherland Sharks at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.98 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.00 + Western Sydney Wanderers U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.49

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 attack 1.79 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sutherland Sharks scores more
34%
level
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 scores more
43%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
R. Shoueiki
29'
A. Waraga
83'
L. Sattout
90'
J. Cameron
90'
T. van Amerongen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sutherland Sharks vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 beat Sutherland Sharks 3-2 in New South Wales NPL on March 6, 2026.

Goals: R. Shoueiki (23'), A. Waraga (29'), L. Sattout (83'), J. Cameron (90'), T. van Amerongen (90').

The match was played at Seymour Shaw Park.