Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3–5 Central Coast II

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Central Coast II

R. Tafunai 90'

M. Younis 57', 12'

P. Thapa 90+5'

N. Duarte 85'

D. Niyonkuru 69', 29' (pen)

A. De Lima 48'

6/12/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 19Wanderers Football Park Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2348%

×Draw23%

Central Coast II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western Sydney Wanderers U23Expected goals in this matchCentral Coast II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.37

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

1.82

Central Coast II

1.37

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 46 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

1.74

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

1.47

Central Coast II

1.00

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

1.74

Central Coast II

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U23+0.00on par

Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 ↓

Central Coast II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or draw

71%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or Central Coast II

77%

Draw or Central Coast II

52%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 wins by 2+

26%

Central Coast II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1+ goals

84%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2+ goals

54%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3+ goals

27%

Central Coast II 1+ goals

75%

Central Coast II 2+ goals

40%

Central Coast II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (draw refunded)

62%

Central Coast II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 attack 1.47 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Western Sydney Wanderers U23 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 scores more

48%

level

23%

Central Coast II scores more

29%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Younis

29'

D. NiyonkuruPenalty

48'

A. De Lima

57'

M. Younis

69'

D. Niyonkuru

85'

N. Duarte

90'

R. Tafunai

90+3'

E. Kalamvokis

90+5'

P. Thapa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff