Western Sydney Wanderers U21 0–1 Sutherland Sharks

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sutherland Sharks

4/9/2023

New South Wales NPL · Round 10Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2138%

×Draw23%

Sutherland Sharks39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western Sydney Wanderers U21Expected goals in this matchSutherland Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.71

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.69

Sutherland Sharks

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

1.73

creates per match

1.29

2.13

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.73

Sutherland Sharks

1.29

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

2.13

Sutherland Sharks

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 ↓

Sutherland Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or draw

61%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or Sutherland Sharks

77%

Draw or Sutherland Sharks

62%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+

19%

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals

82%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals

50%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals

24%

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals

82%

Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals

51%

Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)

49%

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Sutherland Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.73 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.29 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more

38%

level

23%

Sutherland Sharks scores more

39%

Sutherland Sharks at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sutherland Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff