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Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers — New South Wales NPL 2026

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
3/25/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 8Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2132%
×Draw21%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.66
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.04

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.73
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.95

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
2.13
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.59

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par
APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or draw
53%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or APIA Leichhardt Tigers
79%
Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers
68%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
15%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
81%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
49%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
23%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
87%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
60%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
41%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.73 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.95 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
32%
level
21%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
47%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 and APIA Leichhardt Tigers drew 2-2 in New South Wales NPL on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.