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Western Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix — A-League 2018

Western Sydney
Western Sydney
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix
K. Baccus 84'
B. Hamill 42'
R. Krishna 89', 82'
L. Fenton 36'
1/8/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 12ANZ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Western Sydney45%
×Draw24%
Wellington Phoenix31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney
1.65
Wellington Phoenix
1.35

Western Sydney creates 22% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

creates per match

Western Sydney
1.56
Wellington Phoenix
1.29

allows per match

Western Sydney
1.41
Wellington Phoenix
1.73

finishing

Western Sydney+0.00on par
Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney ↓

Wellington Phoenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Western Sydney or draw
69%
Western Sydney or Wellington Phoenix
76%
Draw or Wellington Phoenix
55%

Winning margin

Western Sydney wins by 2+
23%
Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Western Sydney 1+ goals
81%
Western Sydney 2+ goals
49%
Western Sydney 3+ goals
23%
Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
74%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
39%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney (draw refunded)
59%
Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.73 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney attack 1.56 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.29 + Western Sydney defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Western Sydney scores more
45%
level
24%
Wellington Phoenix scores more
31%

Western Sydney at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Western Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
R. KrishnaWellington PhoenixWellington Phoenix · F
8.2

Match Events

6'
N. Fitzgerald← A. Baumjohann
8'
Andrew Durante
24'
Alex Rufer
36'
L. Fenton↳ S. Singh
42'
B. Hamill↳ N. Fitzgerald
44'
K. Yeboah← Oriol Riera
59'
Kwame Yeboah
62'
Brendan Hamill
63'
C. Sheridan← D. Williams
70'
Roly Bonevacia
77'
Cillian Sheridan
82'
R. Krishna↳ C. Sheridan
84'
K. Baccus
87'
M. Burgess← S. Singh
89'
R. Krishna↳ M. Burgess
90'
M. Nichols← M. Kopczynski

Possession

56%Western

Shots

23Western

Pass accuracy

52%Western

Statistics

WesternWellington
Overview
56%Possession44%
23Total Shots14
7Corners5
15Fouls15
Shots
23Total Shots14
8On Target6
9Off Target5
6Blocked3
15Inside Box10
8Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
385Total Passes299
299Accurate Passes213
78%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
4Offsides3

A-League: Western Sydney 2–3 Wellington Phoenix

Wellington Phoenix beat Western Sydney 3-2 in A-League on January 8, 2019.

Goals: L. Fenton (36'), B. Hamill (42'), R. Krishna (82', 89'), K. Baccus (84').

Western Sydney controlled possession (56%) and registered 23 shots to 14.

The match was played at ANZ Stadium in Sydney.