Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Western Strikers vs West Torrens Birkalla — South Australia State League 1 2021

Western Strikers
Western Strikers
FT
1 – 4
West Torrens Birkalla
West Torrens Birkalla
8/28/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 19Carnegie Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers28%
×Draw22%
West Torrens Birkalla50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Strikers
1.47
West Torrens Birkalla
2.00

West Torrens Birkalla creates 36% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 37 away

creates per match

Western Strikers
1.32
West Torrens Birkalla
1.86

allows per match

Western Strikers
2.14
West Torrens Birkalla
1.62

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par
West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

West Torrens Birkalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw
50%
Western Strikers or West Torrens Birkalla
78%
Draw or West Torrens Birkalla
72%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+
13%
West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals
77%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
43%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
18%
West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals
86%
West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals
59%
West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)
36%
West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

West Torrens Birkalla away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.86 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Western Strikers scores more
28%
level
22%
West Torrens Birkalla scores more
50%

West Torrens Birkalla at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "West Torrens Birkalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Strikers vs West Torrens Birkalla

West Torrens Birkalla beat Western Strikers 4-1 in South Australia State League 1 on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Carnegie Reserve in Adelaide.