Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Western Strikers vs Playford City Patriots — South Australia State League 1 2021

Western Strikers
Western Strikers
FT
1 – 8
HT: 0 – 4
Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
8/10/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 22Regency Park Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers27%
×Draw22%
Playford City Patriots51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Strikers
1.40
Playford City Patriots
2.00

Playford City Patriots creates 43% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 46 away

creates per match

Western Strikers
1.32
Playford City Patriots
1.87

allows per match

Western Strikers
2.14
Playford City Patriots
1.48

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par
Playford City Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

Playford City Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw
49%
Western Strikers or Playford City Patriots
78%
Draw or Playford City Patriots
73%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+
12%
Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals
75%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
41%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
17%
Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
86%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
59%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)
34%
Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Playford City Patriots away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Playford City Patriots attack 1.87 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Western Strikers scores more
27%
level
22%
Playford City Patriots scores more
51%

Playford City Patriots at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Western Strikers 1–8 Playford City Patriots

Playford City Patriots beat Western Strikers 8-1 in South Australia State League 1 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Regency Park Pitch 1 in Adelaide.